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Confirmation bias - Wikipedia. Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations). A series of experiments in the 1.
Later work re- interpreted these results as a tendency to test ideas in a one- sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. In certain situations, this tendency can bias people's conclusions. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another explanation is that people show confirmation bias because they are weighing up the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way.
Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Poor decisions due to these biases have been found in political and organizational contexts. They differ from what is sometimes called the behavioral confirmation effect, commonly known as self- fulfilling prophecy, in which a person's expectations influence their own behavior, bringing about the expected result. Others apply the term more broadly to the tendency to preserve one's existing beliefs when searching for evidence, interpreting it, or recalling it from memory. In studies where subjects could select either such pseudo- tests or genuinely diagnostic ones, they favored the genuinely diagnostic.
For example, various contradictory ideas about someone could each be supported by concentrating on one aspect of his or her behavior. This was shown using a fictional child custody case. Parent B had a mix of salient positive and negative qualities: a close relationship with the child but a job that would take him or her away for long periods of time. However, when asked, .
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In an initial experiment, participants rated another person on the introversion–extroversion personality dimension on the basis of an interview. Watch Ken And The Basketball Star online in english with english subtitles 1440. They chose the interview questions from a given list. When the interviewee was introduced as an introvert, the participants chose questions that presumed introversion, such as, . This pattern, of a main preference for diagnostic tests and a weaker preference for positive tests, has been replicated in other studies. Selective exposure occurs when individuals search for information that is consistent, rather than inconsistent, with their personal beliefs. Individuals with low confidence levels do not seek out contradictory information and prefer information that supports their personal position. People generate and evaluate evidence in arguments that are biased towards their own beliefs and opinions.
So, participants could . Despite making many attempts over a ten- hour session, none of the participants figured out the rules of the system. They typically attempted to confirm rather than falsify their hypotheses, and were reluctant to consider alternatives.
Even after seeing objective evidence that refuted their working hypotheses, they frequently continued doing the same tests. Some of the participants were taught proper hypothesis- testing, but these instructions had almost no effect. Even if two individuals have the same information, the way they interpret it can be biased.
A team at Stanford University conducted an experiment involving participants who felt strongly about capital punishment, with half in favor and half against it. After reading a quick description of each study, the participants were asked whether their opinions had changed. Then, they read a more detailed account of each study's procedure and had to rate whether the research was well- conducted and convincing. Half the participants were told that one kind of study supported the deterrent effect and the other undermined it, while for other participants the conclusions were swapped.
Once they read the more detailed descriptions of the two studies, they almost all returned to their original belief regardless of the evidence provided, pointing to details that supported their viewpoint and disregarding anything contrary. Participants described studies supporting their pre- existing view as superior to those that contradicted it, in detailed and specific ways.
This effect, known as . They were shown apparently contradictory pairs of statements, either from Republican candidate George W. Bush, Democratic candidate John Kerry or a politically neutral public figure. They were also given further statements that made the apparent contradiction seem reasonable. From these three pieces of information, they had to decide whether or not each individual's statements were inconsistent. As participants evaluated contradictory statements by their favored candidate, emotional centers of their brains were aroused. This did not happen with the statements by the other figures.
The experimenters inferred that the different responses to the statements were not due to passive reasoning errors. Lit By A Blazing Sun movie online in english 2160p. Instead, the participants were actively reducing the cognitive dissonance induced by reading about their favored candidate's irrational or hypocritical behavior. Participants in an experiment took the SAT test (a college admissions test used in the United States) to assess their intelligence levels.
They then read information regarding safety concerns for vehicles, and the experimenters manipulated the national origin of the car. American participants provided their opinion if the car should be banned on a six- point scale, where one indicated . Participants believed that the dangerous German car on American streets should be banned more quickly than the dangerous American car on German streets. There was no difference among intelligence levels at the rate participants would ban a car. In another experiment, participants were told a story about a theft. They had to rate the evidential importance of statements arguing either for or against a particular character being responsible.
When they hypothesized that character's guilt, they rated statements supporting that hypothesis as more important than conflicting statements. This effect is called .
Schema theory predicts that information matching prior expectations will be more easily stored and recalled than information that does not match. One group was told this was to assess the woman for a job as a librarian, while a second group were told it was for a job in real estate sales. There was a significant difference between what these two groups recalled, with the . Another group were told the opposite. In a subsequent, apparently unrelated, study, they were asked to recall events from their lives in which they had been either introverted or extroverted. Each group of participants provided more memories connecting themselves with the more desirable personality type, and recalled those memories more quickly.
Simpson had been acquitted of murder charges. Results indicated that participants' assessments for Simpson's guilt changed over time. The more that participants' opinion of the verdict had changed, the less stable were the participant's memories regarding their initial emotional reactions. When participants recalled their initial emotional reactions two months and a year later, past appraisals closely resembled current appraisals of emotion. People demonstrate sizable myside bias when discussing their opinions on controversial topics. Participants noted a higher experience of grief at six months rather than at five years.
Yet, when the participants were asked after five years how they had felt six months after the death of their significant other, the intensity of grief participants recalled was highly correlated with their current level of grief. Individuals appear to utilize their current emotional states to analyze how they must have felt when experiencing past events. Half of each group were told that the experimental results supported the existence of ESP, while the others were told they did not. In a subsequent test, participants recalled the material accurately, apart from believers who had read the non- supportive evidence. This group remembered significantly less information and some of them incorrectly remembered the results as supporting ESP. The experimenters looked at what happened when balls of alternating color were drawn in turn, a sequence that does not favor either basket. After each ball was drawn, participants in one group were asked to state out loud their judgments of the probability that the balls were being drawn from one or the other basket.
These participants tended to grow more confident with each successive draw—whether they initially thought the basket with 6. Another group of participants were asked to state probability estimates only at the end of a sequence of drawn balls, rather than after each ball. They did not show the polarization effect, suggesting that it does not necessarily occur when people simply hold opposing positions, but rather when they openly commit to them. Twenty- three percent of the participants reported that their views had become more extreme, and this self- reported shift correlated strongly with their initial attitudes. However, comparisons of their attitudes before and after the new evidence showed no significant change, suggesting that the self- reported changes might not be real.
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